A Post-Scarcity Economy
"Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable."~ Milton Friedman Capitalism and Freedom
What if the biggest challenges facing humanity today – from environmental crises to economic inequality – weren't signs of an impending decline, but rather the birth pangs of a brighter future? On the horizon are technological shifts so profound they could reshape our world in ways we've only begun to imagine. Join me as we explore a vision of a post-scarcity world, powered by near-free energy and information, where everyday necessities are within reach for all.
Let's start with something that has been transforming our world for a while now: the near-free exchange of information. Today, accessing vast amounts of knowledge is easier and cheaper than ever. Many prestigious universities, like MIT, with its OpenCourseware, already offer a wealth of course materials that are available online for free. The potential for universal education is immense in a world where information is practically free.
However, our society still primarily equates the value of education with its monetary returns, often hinging on the possession of a degree. While the immersive experience of learning within a dedicated community has undeniable value, this opportunity isn't universally accessible. Yet, the internet has democratized learning to an unprecedented degree. The barriers to acquiring knowledge are lower than at any other point in history.
We need a societal shift in how we value education to capitalize on this information abundance. We need to develop more accessible and reliable ways to assess and recognize individuals' knowledge and skills outside of traditional degrees or drastically lower the barriers to obtaining a degree, particularly the financial ones. Without such changes, we risk limiting the potential of a highly informed populace.
With this incredible freedom of information comes a critical challenge: validity. How do individuals discern what is accurate and trustworthy when anyone can share content online? While this proliferation of information offers immense opportunities, it also risks widespread misinformation and the erosion of trust in reliable sources.
In many ways, this challenge presents an opportunity that traditional institutions like mainstream media outlets and universities arguably didn't fully grasp. Had these established entities maintained high public trust, they could have evolved into crucial services for validating information in this new digital landscape. Imagine universities, for example, offering pathways to certify knowledge gained through online resources, or media organizations developing robust systems for fact-checking and verification that were widely recognized and respected.
Unfortunately, public trust in these institutions has often been eroded. Which leaves a void in terms of widely accepted authorities for information validation. Addressing this issue will be crucial moving forward. The future of education in a free-information world may involve new forms of decentralized validation, peer-review systems integrated into online learning platforms, or the rise of trusted independent organizations dedicated to verifying information.
Ultimately, while the nearly unrestricted flow of information offers unprecedented opportunities for education and learning, we must also proactively address the challenge of ensuring the validity and trustworthiness of that information to unlock its transformative potential for civilization.
To further illustrate this monumental shift, consider a beloved example of educational programming from the past: Sesame Street. When it premiered in the late 1960s, it was a groundbreaking effort to bring quality early childhood education to a broad audience through television. While remarkably effective, producing and distributing Sesame Street was significant, costing around $28,000 per episode to reach approximately 7 million children daily. That translates to roughly four-tenths of a cent per child per episode.
Today, in contrast, the cost of reaching a similar audience, or even a much larger one, with high-quality educational content online is virtually zero once the initial content is created. Millions across the globe can access a single educational video or interactive module without incurring additional distribution costs per viewer. This near-zero marginal cost of disseminating knowledge represents an unprecedented opportunity to democratize education on a massive scale.
Let's make that abstract idea of 'politically impossible becoming politically inevitable' more concrete. Consider the energy landscape. For decades, we’ve been told that transitioning from fossil fuels would be too expensive and disruptive. Yet, the reality on the ground is changing at an astonishing pace.
Think about solar power. Just a decade ago, it was often seen as a niche technology, too costly for widespread adoption, especially in the developing world. But the numbers tell another story. Over the past ten years, the cost of installing solar panels has plummeted by nearly 40% in developed nations. Globally, the price of solar panels has fallen by a staggering 90%!
This isn't just a small change; it's a fundamental shift. Today, in 2025, generating electricity from new solar plants is, on average, 40% cheaper than building new coal or gas-fired power plants. In many parts of the world, including the rapidly growing economies of the Asia Pacific region, renewable energy, led by solar, is already cheaper than traditional fossil fuels.
And the decreasing cost of generating clean energy is only part of the story. Addressing the intermittent nature of some renewables, like solar and wind, requires advancements in energy storage. This is where technologies like Lithium-Sulfur (Li-S) batteries come into play. Compared to the currently dominant Lithium-ion technology, Li-S batteries promise to be cheaper, lighter, and have a longer, potentially near-infinite, service life. While they still require lithium, which involves its environmental considerations in mining, the vastly extended lifespan of Li-S batteries means less frequent replacements and therefore a reduced overall demand for new lithium extraction. Furthermore, they offer the potential for increased recyclability compared to Lithium-ion options. Considering their longevity and improved recycling prospects, the net effect of a widespread transition to Lithium-Sulfur batteries is a significant step towards a greener energy storage solution.
Looking further into the future, materials like Iron Trichloride (FeCl₃) also hold significant promise in battery technology. Research suggests that Iron Trichloride, an incredibly abundant and cheap material, has the potential to perform as well as or even better than some lithium-based batteries, and importantly, it could offer a pathway to reducing our reliance on lithium. While a direct replacement of lithium in the current Lithium-Sulfur chemistry isn't yet established, the separate advantages of Iron Trichloride – its abundance and potential for high performance – coupled with the benefits of Sulfur in lowering battery costs, could theoretically lead to even cleaner and significantly cheaper energy storage solutions in the future. Continued research in battery materials is crucial to unlock these possibilities.
"From a geopolitical standpoint, a shift towards battery technologies utilizing abundant and widely distributed materials like iron and sulfur could offer significant advantages over relying heavily on resources concentrated in specific regions, such as lithium. Reducing dependencies on foreign trade for critical battery components could lead to more stable and secure energy supplies and, hopefully, lessen the geopolitical motivations for resource-driven conflicts in the future."
"Significant strides are being made in recycling. As these technologies become more widespread, developing robust recycling infrastructure will be crucial to ensure a sustainable lifecycle for these energy sources. Recent studies, including a peer-reviewed analysis by Stanford University researchers, have shown that Redwood Material’s recycling process could produce up to 80% fewer emissions than traditional supply chains that rely on CO2-emitting refineries. This innovation not only highlights the cost-effectiveness of recycling over mining but also underscores the potential for a sustainable circular economy in battery materials
Other companies in the battery recycling sector are also demonstrating impressive environmental benefits. Li-Cycle reports greenhouse gas emissions reductions of 58% to 81% compared to mining and processing new metals, and their Life Cycle Assessments indicate offsetting 40% to 67% CO2 emissions. Furthermore, Fortum claims that their "black mass" battery recycling process can enable as much as a 90% reduction in the carbon emissions of battery production by utilizing recycled materials.
These significant gains in recycling processes mean that we can recover valuable materials and reduce our reliance on virgin resources, pushing us closer to a genuinely circular energy economy for the technologies powering our future."
What does this mean for the future we're envisioning? It means the developing world has incredible opportunities. They don't have to repeat the expensive and often environmentally damaging path of relying on oil and coal. They can leapfrog directly to clean, affordable energy. With costs continuing to fall, the dream of near-free energy becomes increasingly tangible for everyone on the planet. This abundance of clean energy can power everything from homes and schools to local manufacturing and agriculture, creating a foundation for a more prosperous and sustainable future. The speed at which this cleaner world arrives will depend on continued innovation, supportive policies, and global will. Still, the economic and environmental momentum is undeniably building for a significant transition in the coming decades.
"Building on the foundation of near-free information and energy, the next technological wave with the potential to reshape our world is in manufacturing, particularly with advancements in materials science like graphene and the increasing affordability of 3D printing.
As we discussed, graphene boasts remarkable properties. Moving from the lab to practical applications has taken time, but we see its potential realized in various industries. When you combine the versatility of graphene with the accessibility of 3D printers, which are now available for roughly the cost of a good television, you unlock a transformative paradigm.
Imagine a future where the need to purchase and transport vast consumer goods diminishes significantly. With the ability to download designs and print items on demand, individuals and communities could become largely self-sufficient in producing many of their daily needs. Think about being able to print your own durable furniture, kitchenware, tools, and even construction materials, potentially using recycled inputs or readily available materials like graphene.
This shift in manufacturing could have profound implications:
- Localized Production and Resilient Supply Chains: Reduced reliance on complex global supply chains vulnerable to disruptions.
- Democratization of Production: Empowering individuals and communities to create what they need, fostering innovation and customization.
- Reduced Waste: Manufacturing on demand could significantly decrease overproduction and unsold inventory.
- Lower Costs for Consumers: As manufacturing becomes more efficient and localized, the cost of many goods could drastically decrease.
While widespread adoption of graphene 3D printing for everyday items is still on the horizon, the rapid advancements in materials science and additive manufacturing suggest that this future is becoming increasingly plausible.
And speaking of manufacturing, another revolution is brewing with materials like graphene and advancements in 3D printing. Graphene, often called a 'wonder material' for its incredible strength, lightness, and conductivity, has been on the horizon for a while. But we're now starting to see it move into practical applications. Imagine a future where 3D printers, now as affordable as a good TV, can utilize graphene to print everyday necessities – from the table you eat on and the utensils you use, to durable pots and pans.
This capability has the potential to shake up consumer economics fundamentally. Instead of relying on centralized mass production and complex supply chains, individuals and communities could have the means to produce many of the goods they need locally, on demand. This could lead to more resilient local economies, reduced waste from overproduction and transportation, and a shift away from our current model of constant consumption of cheaply made, disposable goods. When paired with near-free energy, the cost of many basic goods could plummet, further contributing to a world where resources are abundant and accessible to all.
What's truly exciting is the synergistic nature of these advancements. Imagine: near-free energy powering near-free manufacturing. This creates an environment where rapid prototyping becomes incredibly accessible. Have a design for a better tool or a more efficient household item? Print it out quickly and affordably.
But the synergy doesn't stop there. Thanks to the near-free exchange of information, you can instantly share your designs with a global community. Others can then build upon your work, offering improvements and innovations that you could wake up to each morning – hundreds of potential enhancements at your fingertips. This collaborative and iterative design process, fueled by readily available resources, has the potential to accelerate progress in countless areas.
Finally, we come to the realm of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Quantum Computing. This field is advancing at an astonishing pace, guaranteeing a fundamental reshaping of the world. The rapid cost reduction of powerful AI models and the continuous progress in quantum chip technology promise to unlock solutions to complex problems across many disciplines.
Beyond these headline-grabbing advancements, we should also consider the transformative potential of nanotechnology, specifically nanites. These microscopic robots hold immense promise for both revolutionizing manufacturing at an incredibly precise level and for making significant breakthroughs in healthcare, from targeted drug delivery and disease detection to potentially even cellular repair.
The synergistic power of AI, quantum computing, and nanotechnologies, combined with the foundations of near-free information, energy, and manufacturing, paints a picture of a future where many of today's limitations could be overcome, leading to unprecedented innovation and well-being.
We stand at a critical juncture. The confluence of near-free information, the burgeoning revolution in clean energy, and the transformative potential of advanced manufacturing, coupled with the promise of AI and quantum computing, offers us a tangible pathway to a post-scarcity future. Yet, this potential remains just that – potential – unless we seize the moment. With its challenges and uncertainties, the current economic landscape can serve as a powerful catalyst for change. It underscores the limitations of our existing systems and highlights the urgent need for innovative solutions. If we fail to act decisively now and allow entrenched interests to maintain the status quo, we risk squandering this unprecedented opportunity to build a more equitable, sustainable, and prosperous world for all. The time for bold vision and decisive action is upon us. The future we've outlined is within reach, but only if we collectively choose to build it.